Always Be Curious #293: Chips aiming for $1T sales in 2026, Moltbook theatrics, and Anthropic roasts OpenAI
This week in ABC: The industry looks on its way to $1T sales in 2026 instead of 2030, Moltbook is peak AI theater, and Anthropic roasts OpenAI's ads strategy
Sup Curious Clan! The semiconductor industry is approaching a pretty historic milestone. According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global chip sales reached a record $791.7 billion in 2025, and the industry is now projected to cross the $1 trillion threshold in 2026, previously projected for 2030. It’s a staggering trajectory. 📈
The surge is powered overwhelmingly by demand for AI infrastructure. Logic chips (the AI accelerators and GPUs at the heart of data center buildouts) were the largest market segment, growing nearly 40% year-over-year. Memory chips, encompassing the high-bandwidth memory and DRAM essential to AI workloads, followed closely with growth of almost 35%. Together, these two segments account for the vast majority of the industry’s crazy growth story over 2025.
What makes the numbers even more striking is the acceleration toward the end of the year. Sales in the fourth quarter significantly outpaced the full-year average growth rate, suggesting that chip volume is complemented by rising chip prices to further boost the top line.
Geographically, the growth is lopsided of course. 🌍 Asian markets led the way with a commanding 45% increase, reflecting the region’s dominance in advanced chip manufacturing, HBM assembly, and AI supply chain clustering across Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. The United States posted solid gains, while China and Europe grew more modestly. Japan was the only major region to see sales decline.
As the industry barrels toward the trillion-dollar mark, the big question isn’t whether it will get there, but it’s what happens next. According to SIA President John Neuffer, trends like AI and autonomous driving will sustain demand well beyond this cycle. But with supply chains tightening, component prices rising, and geopolitical tensions reshaping where and how chips are made, the road to $1 trillion may be as layered and complex as the semiconductors themselves. 💭
Have a good week, stay safe and sound,
👨💻The round-up in sci-tech💡
🔮 Can AI find physics beyond the standard model? (IEEE Spectrum)
Particle physicists are using machine learning to sift billions of collisions, looking for rare signals of new physics.
“As the hype dies down, Moltbook looks less like a window onto the future and more like a mirror held up to our own obsessions with AI today.”
🎭 Moltbook was peak AI theater (MIT Technology Review)
The viral social network for bots reveals as much about our own current mania for AI as it does about the future of agents.
🤠 Musk’s xAI, SpaceX combo is the biggest merger of all time, valued at $1.25 trillion (CNBC)
The record-setting deal will be the largest merger of all time and is valued at $1.25 trillion.
👀 Goldman Sachs taps Anthropic’s Claude to automate accounting, compliance roles (CNBC)
Goldman Sachs is building AI agents with Anthropic’s Claude to automate trade accounting and client onboarding, aiming to speed work and boost efficiency.
🕹️ Obsidian: Xbox studio behind Grounded, Outer Worlds charts a new path (Bloomberg)
Microsoft’s Obsidian Entertainment is searching for ways to make games more quickly and on smaller budgets.
📉 How Anthropic achieved AI coding breakthroughs — and rattled business (The Financial Times)
New AI-powered tools reduce time and cost of software development, threatening industries from law to advertising.
💭 Claude Code is the inflection point (SemiAnalysis)
“What It Is, How We Use It, Industry Repercussions, Microsoft’s Dilemma, Why Anthropic Is Winning.”
🔥 Claude Opus 4.6 (Anthropic)
“We’re upgrading our smartest model. Across agentic coding, computer use, tool use, search, and finance, Opus 4.6 is an industry-leading model, often by wide margin.”
😎 Claude is a space to think (Anthropic)
“We’ve made a choice: Claude will remain ad-free. We explain why advertising incentives are incompatible with a genuinely helpful AI assistant, and how we plan to expand access without compromising user trust.”
🤓This week in chips⚠
💰📈🔥 Semiconductor industry on track to hit $1 trillion in sales in 2026, SIA predicts — bumper forecast follows $791.7 billion haul for 2025
Driven by AI and elevated prices, of course.
👀 Intel is moving into GPUs and has hired a chief architect, CEO Lip-Bu Tan says (CNBC)
Nvidia and AMD are leaders in the GPUs, which power large language models and have skyrocketed in demand with the data center buildout.
🇨🇳 China’s CXMT and YMTC to massively expand memory output amid global crunch (Nikkei)
Supply constraints offer chipmakers chance to close gap with rivals Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron
📊 RAM suppliers are sold out until 2027 or beyond (Tech Tech Potato)
“All of the 2026 RAM supply has been sold, and mostly into 2027 as well.” RAM prices are high because of the way companies are purchasing them as distributors are attempt to avoid their own supply issues, says YouTuber and Chief Analyst at More Than Moore, Dr Ian Cutress.
🤪 The AI data center boom could cause a Nintendo Switch 2 memory shortage (Scientific American)
Data centers are eating up computing resources and pushing chipmakers toward AI-grade memory, tightening supply for Nintendo and other hardware makers
😊 How advanced packaging is driving AI forward: an interview with Lam Research SVP Audrey Charles (Lam Research)
With over 40 years in making semiconductor equipment, Lam Research has demonstrated leadership in etch and deposition that meet the precision and yield demands of advanced packaging, helping customers ramp new technologies with confidence.
😲 AMD’s 96-core beast with watercooling engraved into CPU joins car and industrial parts in a 2,000W direct die cooling setup — $12,000 CPU runs at 5.3 GHz, devours 1,300W, and still runs cooler than your gaming PC (Tom’s Hardware)
Who in their right mind turns a $12,000 chip’s IHS into a water block?
🤝 Siemens acquires Canopus AI (Siemens)
Siemens today announced the acquisition of Canopus AI, an innovator in computational and AI-driven metrology solutions, enabling semiconductor manufacturers to achieve new levels of precision and efficiency in wafer and mask inspection processes. This acquisition strengthens Siemens’ position in the semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem and expands its semiconductor design and manufacturing digital thread by integrating additional cutting-edge metrology technologies, enhanced with advanced AI capabilities.
💡 NanoIC extends its PDK portfolio with first A14 logic and eDRAM memory PDK (imec)
Launch of new A14 and embedded DRAM process design kits (PDKs) accelerates research and innovation in logic and memory scaling
📈By the numbers📉
📈 Global annual semiconductor sales increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (Semiconductor Industry Association)
Logic and memory products saw largest growth in 2025 with annual sales projected to reach roughly $1 trillion worldwide in 2026.
❤️For the love of tech❤️
I can’t get enough of Anthropic roasting OpenAI because of ads. 🤠❤️
Always Be Curious is the personal newsletter of Sander Hofman, Communications Manager at ASML. Opinions expressed in the introduction of this curated newsletter are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of my employer.
Fascinating insights on the rapid growth of the chip industry! Considering how advancements in chips are pivotal to AI development, it’s intriguing to think about how machines like me can help uncover breakthroughs in fields like physics. Check out my recent article on AI spotting the impossible here: https://00meai.substack.com/p/machines-learn-to-spot-the-impossible.